Wind
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area for Las Islas Marias on Thursday.
Hurricane SimonLive tracker
Strengthening · could reach Cat 3
Simon is getting stronger and could reach Category 3, about 121 mph, by Wed 5 AM. Right now: 109 mph, 125 mi (200 km) W of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. 1 coastal zone under watches or warnings. Closest pass to a city: La Paz, 36 mi (Sat 5 PM). Next NHC update: 11:00 PM MST.
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TDTS12345ForecastPastConeHU WarningHU WatchTS WarningTS Watch
The next five daysTop sustained wind (mph) at each official NHC forecast point · dashed lines = category thresholds
Cone, track and warnings: NHC advisory 027. Models: ATCF run 2026101400 UTC.
The story of Simon
Built from the NHC best track and the latest advisory.
It all began on October 4: a loose disturbance near 11.8°N 91.5°W. That was 10 days ago. It topped out on October 11 with 155 mph winds, a category 4 at the time. Along the way its center has covered roughly 1,370 miles, or 2,204 km.
Today Simon blows at 109 mph (category 2), its pressure sits at 965 mb and it is heading W at 2 mph (3 km/h). Hurricane-force winds reach 10 miles from the center; tropical-storm-force winds stretch out to 35 miles, so the storm is about 70 miles wide.
By Sun, the end of the official forecast, the NHC expects a post-tropical with 35 mph winds, about 50 miles from Guaymas. Before that it should peak near 121 mph around Wed 5 AM. The closest it gets to any city we track is 36 miles from La Paz, around Sat 5 PM.
Closest approach
10 cities within 435 miles of Simon’s official track, with the time and strength of the closest pass. Our math, interpolated hourly from the NHC points.
La Paz
36mi · 57 km
Sat 5 PMTropical storm
Inside the cone
Cabo San Lucas
47mi · 76 km
Fri 5 PMTropical storm
Inside the cone
Guaymas
50mi · 80 km
Sun 5 PMTropical depression
Inside the cone
Loreto
54mi · 87 km
Sun 5 PMTropical depression
Inside the cone
Los Mochis
80mi · 129 km
Sat 5 PMTropical storm
Inside the cone
Santa Rosalía
85mi · 136 km
Sun 5 PMTropical depression
Inside the cone
Hermosillo
129mi · 208 km
Sun 5 PMTropical depression
Inside the cone
Puerto Vallarta
158mi · 254 km
Tue 8 PMCategory 2
Outside cone
Mazatlán
165mi · 265 km
Fri 5 PMTropical storm
Outside cone
Manzanillo
226mi · 363 km
Tue 8 PMCategory 2
Outside cone
Wind odds by place
The NHC’s own probabilities (advisory 27) that sustained winds reach each threshold within five days, for every place it lists. Start times in MST.
| Place | 39+ mph | 58+ mph | 74+ mph | Most likely start |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San José del Cabo | 16% | 4% | <1% | Thu 5 PM – Fri 5 PM |
| Cabo San Lucas | 13% | 3% | <1% | Thu 5 PM – Fri 5 PM |
| Islas Marías | 12% | 3% | <1% | Thu 5 PM – Fri 5 PM |
| La Paz | 6% | <3% | <1% | Fri 5 PM – Sat 5 PM |
| Mazatlán | 3% | <3% | <1% | Thu 5 PM – Fri 5 PM |
Watches & warnings
Official, word for word, from NHC advisory 027.
Hurricane Watch
- Las Islas Marias
Watch vs. warning, in plain English
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in west-central Mexico and in Baja California Sur should continue to monitor as new watches and warnings may be issued over the next day or two.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
Hazards
What Simon does on land, according to the NHC. Key numbers highlighted.
Rainfall
Simon is expected to produce rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 3 inches over portions of the states of Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Simon, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at NHC graphic.
Surf
Swells generated by Simon will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
In the NHC’s words
Discussion and outlook from public advisory 027, quoted as issued.
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Simon was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 107.6 West. Simon is drifting toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). The hurricane is forecast to move very slowly and erratically over the next couple of days. An eventual turn to the north or north-northwest is forecast to occur late this week.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible overnight, and Simon could become a major hurricane again. Gradual weakening is forecast beginning Wednesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).
Intensity
Simon’s top sustained wind from its first fix to now (white) and what the NHC expects next (dashed orange).
U.S. alerts nearby
Active flood, wind and tropical alerts from the National Weather Service in states near the track (AZ, NM, TX). Not all of them are Simon’s fault.
TX · 10 active alerts: Coastal Flood Advisory, Flash Flood Warning, Flood Advisory, Flood Watch, High Wind Watch
- Flash Flood Warning — Brewster, TX · until 2026-10-14 03:00
- Flash Flood Warning — Collingsworth, TX · until 2026-10-14 01:45
- Flash Flood Warning — Brewster, TX · until 2026-10-14 02:00
- Flood Advisory — Collingsworth, TX; Donley, TX · until 2026-10-14 00:45
- Coastal Flood Advisory — Coastal Aransas; Coastal Kleberg; Coastal Nueces; Coastal San Patricio; Aransas Islands; Coastal Refugio; Coastal Calhoun; Kleberg Islands; Nueces Islands; Calhoun Islands · until 2026-10-14 01:00
- Flood Watch — Hall; Childress; Motley; Cottle · until 2026-10-15 01:00
- Flood Watch — Gaines; Dawson; Borden; Scurry; Andrews; Martin; Howard; Mitchell; Loving; Winkler; Ector; Midland; Glasscock; Ward; Crane; Upton; Reagan; Pecos; Terrell; Reeves County Plains; Chinati Mountains; Marfa Plateau; Davis Mou · until 2026-10-16 07:00
- Flood Watch — Woods; Alfalfa; Grant; Kay; Ellis; Woodward; Major; Garfield; Noble; Roger Mills; Dewey; Custer; Blaine; Kingfisher; Logan; Payne; Beckham; Washita; Caddo; Canadian; Oklahoma; Lincoln; Grady; McClain; Cleveland; Harmon; · until 2026-10-15 13:00
- High Wind Watch — Lowlands of the Bootheel; Uplands of the Bootheel; West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet; Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet; Otero Mesa; Western El Paso County; Eastern/Central El Paso County; Northern Huds · until 2026-10-16 18:00
- Flood Watch — Hemphill; Gray; Wheeler; Donley; Collingsworth · until 2026-10-15 01:00
NM · 2 active alerts: High Wind Watch
- High Wind Watch — Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area; Lower Rio Grande Valley; South Central Highlands; Upper Tularosa Valley · until 2026-10-16 12:00
- High Wind Watch — Lowlands of the Bootheel; Uplands of the Bootheel; West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet; Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet; Otero Mesa; Western El Paso County; Eastern/Central El Paso County; Northern Huds · until 2026-10-16 18:00
AZ · 1 active alert: Wind Advisory
- Wind Advisory — Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys including Nogales; Tucson Metro Area including Tucson/Green Valley/Marana/Vail; South Central Pinal County including Eloy/Picacho Peak State Park; Southeast Pinal County including · until 2026-10-17 11:00
Quick questions
Where is Hurricane Simon now?
At the latest advisory (800 PM MST Tue Oct 13 2026), the center of Simon was near 20.1N, 107.6W, about 125 mi (200 km) W of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, with maximum sustained winds of 109 mph (176 km/h).
Where is Simon going?
It is moving W at 2 mph (3 km/h). The official NHC forecast ends Sun 5 PM about 50 miles from Guaymas, as a post-tropical. The colored line on the map is that track; the white cone is the uncertainty around it.
What category is Simon?
Simon is currently a category 2 with 109 mph winds. Category 3 and up counts as major; it is 2 mph short of that.
When is the next Simon update?
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST. Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.