Trudy is getting stronger and could reach Category 4, about 132 mph, by Fri 6 PM. Right now: 46 mph, 440 mi (705 km) SSE of Acapulco, Mexico. No coastal watches or warnings. Closest pass to a city: Manzanillo, 6 mi (Sat 6 PM). Next NHC update: 3:00 AM CST.
Cone, track and warnings: NHC advisory 003. Models: ATCF run 2026101400 UTC.
Built from the NHC best track and the latest advisory.
Trudy started out on October 11 as a loose disturbance near 7.6°N 88.0°W, 3 days before this advisory. Right now is its peak so far. Along the way its center has covered roughly 699 miles, or 1,125 km.
The current snapshot: 46 mph sustained winds, 1004 mb of pressure and a track NW at 10 mph (16 km/h). That makes Trudy a tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds reach up to 70 miles from the center.
By Sun, the end of the official forecast, the NHC expects a category 1 with 86 mph winds, about 55 miles from Puerto Vallarta. Before that it should peak near 132 mph around Fri 6 PM. The closest it gets to any city we track is 6 miles from Manzanillo, around Sat 6 PM.
7 cities within 435 miles of Trudy’s official track, with the time and strength of the closest pass. Our math, interpolated hourly from the NHC points.
The NHC’s own probabilities (advisory 3) that sustained winds reach each threshold within five days, for every place it lists. Start times in CST.
| Place | 39+ mph | 58+ mph | 74+ mph | Most likely start |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manzanillo | 64% | 39% | 24% | Fri 6 PM – Sat 6 PM |
| Lázaro Cárdenas | 72% | 37% | 19% | Thu 6 PM – Fri 6 PM |
| Zihuatanejo | 58% | 21% | 10% | Thu 6 PM – Fri 6 PM |
| Barra Navidad | 44% | 22% | 9% | Fri 6 PM – Sat 6 PM |
| Islas Marías | 39% | 17% | 8% | Sat 6 PM – Sun 6 PM |
| San Blas | 38% | 13% | 6% | Sat 6 PM – Sun 6 PM |
| Puerto Vallarta | 34% | 10% | 2% | Sat 6 PM – Sun 6 PM |
| Mazatlán | 18% | 5% | 2% | Sat 6 PM – Sun 6 PM |
| Acapulco | 12% | <3% | <1% | Thu 6 PM – Fri 6 PM |
| San José del Cabo | 5% | <3% | <1% | Sat 6 PM – Sun 6 PM |
| Cabo San Lucas | 4% | <3% | <1% | Sat 6 PM – Sun 6 PM |
Official, word for word, from NHC advisory 003.
Nobody is under a watch or warning because of Trudy right now.
The NHC’s list of land impacts for Trudy.
Swells generated by Trudy are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southern Mexico late this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Discussion and outlook from public advisory 003, quoted as issued.
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Trudy was located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 97.0 West. Trudy is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion between west-northwest and northwest should continue through Wednesday night. A turn toward the north-northwest and a decrease in forward speed is expected on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast during the next few days, and the cyclone is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday night and a major hurricane by Friday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
Wind history from the NHC best track and the forecast ahead, on the Saffir-Simpson bands.
Active flood, wind and tropical alerts from the National Weather Service in states near the track (TX). Not all of them are Trudy’s fault.
At the latest advisory (900 PM CST Tue Oct 13 2026), the center of Trudy was near 11.2N, 97.0W, about 440 mi (705 km) SSE of Acapulco, Mexico, with maximum sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h).
It is moving NW at 10 mph (16 km/h). The official NHC forecast ends Sun 6 PM about 55 miles from Puerto Vallarta, as a category 1. The colored line on the map is that track; the white cone is the uncertainty around it.
Trudy is currently a tropical storm with 46 mph winds. It would need another 28 mph to become a hurricane.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.
