Spaghetti ModelsEvery model's guess, one map
Every line is one computer model's idea of where the center goes next. When they agree, they bunch up. When they don't, you get spaghetti. The thick white line is the official NHC forecast. Pick a storm on the map.
How to read the spaghetti
Tight bundle: the models agree, so the forecast is more trustworthy. Wild fan: tiny differences in the atmosphere send the storm to very different places, and the official cone gets wider to match.
No model wins every time. The NHC's official forecast weighs all of them, how each one has been doing lately and a human forecaster's judgment. Over a season it beats any single model.
Lines are for the center only. Rain, wind and surge can reach hundreds of miles out.
Do the models agree?
Our read of the latest ATCF run for each storm: how far apart the model centers end up.
Simon
9 models reach the 72-hour mark for Simon. At that point their centers are up to 500 miles apart, which is proper spaghetti: nobody agrees yet. The most aggressive run is HAFS-A, peaking at 150 mph.
Trudy
9 models reach the 72-hour mark for Trudy. At that point their centers are up to 274 miles apart, which is some real disagreement. The most aggressive run is COAMPS-TC, peaking at 148 mph.