Champi se fortalece y el JTWC la lleva a supertifón · 241 km/h. Ahora: 74 km/h, a 1,282 km de Andersen AFB (JTWC). Guam: vigilancia de tifón del NWS. Paso más cercano a Guam: 20 km hacia el dom 18 oct, 9 a. m. ChST. Próximo aviso del JTWC: vie 1 p. m. ChST.
Trayectoria, intensidad y zona de peligro: aviso 6 del JTWC (29W). El JTWC no emite cono de incertidumbre; la zona blanca punteada es su franja de peligro de 34 nudos. Las islas llevan el color de su alerta del NWS de Guam. Horas de Guam (ChST, UTC+10).
Alertas del NWS en Tiyan por isla, en hora de Guam, con el paso más cercano del pronóstico del JTWC y los radios de viento oficiales en ese punto.
Ahora: About 800 miles east of Guam (NWS)
Paso más cercano: 20 km (12 mi), hacia dom 18 oct, 9 a. m. ChST. Punto del JTWC a esa hora: tifón, 167 km/h (104 mph) (cat. 2 equivalente); dentro del radio previsto de viento de tormenta tropical (34 kt).
Ahora: About 780 miles east-southeast of Rota (NWS)
Paso más cercano: 67 km (41 mi), hacia dom 18 oct, 8 a. m. ChST. Punto del JTWC a esa hora: tifón, 167 km/h (104 mph) (cat. 2 equivalente); dentro del radio previsto de viento de tormenta tropical (34 kt).
Ahora: About 765 miles east-southeast of Tinian (NWS)
Paso más cercano: 167 km (104 mi), hacia dom 18 oct, 7 a. m. ChST. Punto del JTWC a esa hora: tifón, 167 km/h (104 mph) (cat. 2 equivalente); dentro del radio previsto de viento de tormenta tropical (34 kt).
Ahora: About 765 miles east-southeast of Saipan (NWS)
Paso más cercano: 192 km (119 mi), hacia dom 18 oct, 6 a. m. ChST. Punto del JTWC a esa hora: tifón, 167 km/h (104 mph) (cat. 2 equivalente); dentro del radio previsto de viento de tormenta tropical (34 kt).
También del NWS de Guam: Chuuk: advertencia para embarcaciones pequeñas, declaración especial del tiempo; Kosrae: declaración especial del tiempo; Pohnpei: advertencia para embarcaciones pequeñas, declaración especial del tiempo.
Los pronósticos y avisos oficiales de EE. UU. para Guam y las Marianas del Norte son del Servicio Meteorológico Nacional en Tiyan.
Emitido 512 AM ChST Fri Oct 16 2026. Citado tal cual, en inglés.
TROPICAL STORM CHAMPI MOVING WEST TOWARDS THE MARIANAS
Flood watch is now in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, Saipan.
A Typhoon Watch remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan in the Mariana Islands, and the adjacent coastal waters. A Typhoon Watch means that typhoon conditions, including winds of 74 mph or more, are possible within 48 hours.
A Flood watch is now in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, Saipan. A flood watch means excessive runoff may resulting flooding of rivers creeks streams and other low-laying flood-prone locations.
At 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Champi was located near Latitude 11.6 degrees North and Longitude 156.5 degrees East. Champi is moving west at 12 mph. It is expected to maintain this general course towards the Marianas with a slight increase in forward speed through Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds remain at 40 mph. Champi is forecast to continue to intensify.
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National Weather Service at 800 AM ChST followed by an intermediate advisory at 1100 AM ChST.
De la declaración local del NWS en Tiyan emitida 301 AM ChST Fri Oct 16 2026, citada tal cual (en inglés).
AS Tropical Storm Champi (29W) moves closer, the threat for sustained high winds is likely to increase. The latest forecast is for strong tropical storm force winds from early Sunday morning to Sunday afternoon. Typhoon force winds will be possible near the center of Champi mid to late Sunday morning, which could shift a few hours either way.
As TD 29W approaches, surf of 3 to 5 feet will begin to increase Saturday. Surf will become hazardous at 7 to 9 feet Saturday evening for at least east facing reefs, then rapidly becoming dangerous and life threatening at 15 to 20 feet Sunday morning. All reefs could be exposed to these dangerous conditions but it is too early to determine which will be affected the most. Depending on the exact location of 29W as it moves through the Marianas, maximum storm surge inundation of 2 to 3 feet is possible, with wave runup as high as 12 feet.
Along with winds, dangerous surf and inundation, heavy to torrential rainfall is expected with rain totals amounting to 6 to 12 inches. Therefore, a Flood Watch has been issued.
It is important not to focus on the exact forecast track. To do so could result in bad decisions and place you or those you are responsible for at greater risk. Tropical Storm Champi (29W) is currently moving west towards the Marianas.
Damaging winds are likely within Guam and the Northern Marianas late Saturday night and Sunday. At this time it appears that the strongest winds will be towards the southernmost islands. Islands near the center should prepare for typhoon force winds, with the latest JTWC forecast showing sustained winds of roughly 90 knots.
Hecha con la mejor trayectoria del JTWC y su último aviso.
Todo empezó hace unos 4 días, en 9.5°N 163.8°E: una perturbación con vientos de 28 km/h, a unos 320 km de Ujelang. Desde entonces su centro ha recorrido unos 1,722 km.
En el aviso 6 del JTWC, Champi es una tormenta tropical con vientos sostenidos de 74 km/h (46 mph), una presión central de 999 mb y avanza hacia el ONO a 19 km/h. El JTWC estima olas significativas de hasta 4.6 m (15 pies) en mar abierto.
El JTWC la convierte en tifón el sábado 17 de octubre a las 4 p. m (hora de Guam). Su pico previsto es de 241 km/h (150 mph) (cat. 4 en la escala Saffir-Simpson), fuerza de supertifón, el martes 20 de octubre a las 4 a. m (hora de Guam). El último punto del pronóstico (mié 21 oct, 4 a. m.) la deja a unos 815 km de Minamidaito.
Islas y ciudades a menos de 900 km del pronóstico del JTWC: cuándo pasa más cerca el centro y qué fuerza tiene el punto oficial más próximo. Cálculo nuestro, hora a hora.
Del razonamiento pronóstico del aviso 6, citado tal cual (en mayúsculas y para meteorólogos).
Cambios importantes en el pronóstico. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD BY 5-10 KTS FROM TAU 12 TO TAU 72.
Discusión del pronóstico. TS 29W IS MOVING WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THIS RIDGE WILL ERODE FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 48 AS A TROUGH PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. MEANWHILE, A SHARP MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE KOREAN PENINSULA WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW STR OVER HONSHU. THIS RIDGE WILL SETTLE EAST OF HONSHU NEAR TAU 72 AND BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR TS 29W, MAINTAINING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 120. THE RECENT EXPLOSIVE CONVECTION AND ONGOING VORTEX CONSOLIDATION MAY FORESHADOW SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION ONCE AXISYMMETRIZATION IS ACHIEVED. VWS WILL EASE TOWARD TAU 60, WHILE TS 29W TRAVERSES VERY WARM SST OF 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO BEGIN RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) NEAR TAU 36, REACHING TYPHOON STRENGTH SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND PEAKING AT 125 KTS AT TAU 96. ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES EVEN MORE FAVORABLE AFTER TAU 72, CHARACTERIZED BY WARMER SST, HIGHER OHC, AND 5-10 KTS OF VWS, THE FORECAST CONSERVATIVELY LEVELS OFF THE INTENSITY AFTER TAU 96 TO ACCOUNT FOR DIFFICULT-TO-PREDICT FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY CAUSED BY INTERNAL TROPICAL CYCLONE DYNAMICS.
Discusión de los modelos. THE OVERALL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHT BUT HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD ONCE AGAIN. THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICAL AIDS LIES ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, WHILE THE AI MODELS LEAN TOWARD A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY. GOOGLE DEEPMIND HAS ALSO SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND NOW TAKES THE SYSTEM 30 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS (CONW) AND ECMWF ARE AIMED AT CENTRAL TO NORTHERN GUAM, WHILE GFS AND NAVGEM TARGET THE CHANNEL BETWEEN ROTA AND GUAM. THE AI-MODEL MEAN CLIPS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF GUAM. NEARLY ALL MODELS TRACK THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF ROTA, WITH THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AMONG THE RELIABLE AIDS NEAR THE CPA TO GUAM MEASURING 70 NM. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, POSITIONED BETWEEN CONW AND THE AI-MODEL MEAN BUT HEDGED CLOSER TO THE AI-MODEL MEAN. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE, SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS MAY NEED TO SHIFT THE TRACK FARTHER SOUTH. THE INTENSITY AIDS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER THIS CYCLE. DEEPMIND NOW DEPICTS VERY AGGRESSIVE INTENSIFICATION, BRINGING TS 29W TO 115-130 KTS BY TAU 60. HAFS-A AND GFS ARE SLOWER TO INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM FOR THE FIRST 60 HOURS. HOWEVER, HAFS-A EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENS TS 29W TO 155 KTS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE COAMPS-TC AND DEEPMIND ENSEMBLES PEG THE RI PROBABILITY NEAR 80 PERCENT, WITH 75-85 PERCENT OF THE MEMBERS ACHIEVING SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY BY TAU 96. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED BY 5-10 KTS FROM TAU 12 THROUGH TAU 72, WHILE THE TAU 96 AND TAU 120 FORECAST INTENSITIES REMAIN UNCHANGED. THE FORECAST LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH TAU 48, THEN TRENDS TOWARD THE UPPER END OF THE ENVELOPE BY TAU 96 AND TAU 120. IF TS 29W CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AT THE CURRENT RATE, SUBSEQUENT INTENSITY FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BE FURTHER INCREASED.
Confianza del pronóstico. TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH · TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH · INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM · INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
Viento sostenido de 1 minuto de Champi según la mejor trayectoria del JTWC (blanco) y su pronóstico (punteado), sobre las franjas Saffir-Simpson.
Según el aviso 6 del JTWC (vie 16 oct, 4 a. m. ChST), el centro de Champi estaba en 11.5°N 156.5°E, con vientos sostenidos de 74 km/h (46 mph). El boletín 5A del NWS de Guam lo situaba «About 800 miles east of Guam».
Guam está bajo vigilancia de tifón del Servicio Meteorológico Nacional de EE. UU. (oficina de Tiyan). En el pronóstico del JTWC el centro pasa a unos 20 km (12 mi) de Guam hacia el dom 18 oct, 9 a. m. (hora de Guam), y el punto oficial más cercano a esa hora es tifón con 167 km/h (104 mph), equivalente a cat. 2. Sigue las órdenes de la Oficina de Defensa Civil de Guam (GHS/OCD) y de la Oficina de Gestión de Emergencias de la CNMI.
La declaración local del NWS de Guam (301 AM ChST Fri Oct 16 2026) dice, en inglés: «AS Tropical Storm Champi (29W) moves closer, the threat for sustained high winds is likely to increase. The latest forecast is for strong tropical storm force winds from early Sunday morning to Sunday afternoon. Typhoon force winds will be possible near the center of Champi mid to late Sunday morning, which could shift a few hours either way.»
El pico del pronóstico del JTWC es de 241 km/h (150 mph) (cat. 4 en la escala Saffir-Simpson) el martes 20 de octubre a las 4 a. m. (hora de Guam). El JTWC llama tifón a partir de 64 nudos (119 km/h) y supertifón a partir de 130 nudos (241 km/h); sus vientos son sostenidos de 1 minuto, como los del NHC.
El JTWC no publica un cono como el del NHC. En el mapa dibujamos su «34 knot Danger Swath»: la franja que, según su capa oficial de Google Earth, puede barrer el viento de 34 nudos o más a lo largo del pronóstico. La línea de colores es la trayectoria prevista por el JTWC.
El JTWC emite avisos cada seis horas; los próximos: vie 1 p. m., vie 7 p. m., sáb 1 a. m. (ChST). El NWS de Guam: «The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National Weather Service at 800 AM ChST followed by an intermediate advisory at 1100 AM ChST.» Nosotros revisamos las dos fuentes cada 30 minutos.
Los productos del JTWC son obras del Gobierno de EE. UU. (dominio público). El JTWC indica que sus productos están pensados para organismos del Gobierno de EE. UU.; para los avisos oficiales en Guam y las Marianas del Norte, sigue al Servicio Meteorológico Nacional en Tiyan y a las autoridades de emergencia locales.
