Invest 93LOffshore the East Coast of the United States · could become Josephine
The National Hurricane Center gives Invest 93L a 40% chance of becoming a subtropical or tropical cyclone in 48 hours and 40% in 7 days. It would be named Josephine. Whatever it becomes, the National Weather Service already has 2 coastal flood warnings, 3 coastal flood watches, 11 coastal flood advisories, 6 high surf advisories on the coast (NC, MD, VA, NJ, DE).
Tap a colored area for the alert, its zones and when it ends.
Orange area: where the NHC says a cyclone could form (its Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook). White line and ×: the Invest 93L best track from the NHC's ATCF files, positions every 6 hours. Colored shapes: NWS coastal flood and high surf alerts within 900 km of its center (our cut). At Tue 2:00 PM ET the NHC best track put it near 36.3°N 69.4°W (about 340 mi (550 km) ESE of Ocean City, MD, our math), extratropical low, 45 kt (52 mph), 997 mb.
In the NHC’s words
From the Tropical Weather Outlook issued 200 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026, quoted as issued.
Offshore the East Coast of the United States (AL93): A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area located a few hundred miles off the North Carolina coast is producing some shower and thunderstorm activity primarily west of its center. Recent satellite wind data indicated the low is still frontal. Over the next couple of days, the low could develop some showers and thunderstorms near the low-level center and gradually lose its frontal features while it moves slowly north-northeastward over the Gulf Stream, allowing the system to briefly develop subtropical characteristics. By the end of the week, the system is expected to accelerate northeastward away from the the eastern United States, where environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for additional subtropical or tropical development.
Regardless of the status of the system, high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf are expected along portions of the U.S. East Coast during the next few days. For more information, please consult statements and warnings from local National Weather Service offices and the Weather Prediction Center, along with High Seas Forecasts and Storm Warnings issued by the National Weather Service.
Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
Chances are the NHC's: low under 40%, medium 40–60%, high over 60%.
On the coast
National Weather Service coastal flood and surf alerts near Invest 93L. Linked by distance (our cut), so not every one is necessarily its doing.
Roads
Vulnerable portions of NC-12 may be inundated, especially around high tide.
Coastal Flood Warning · Hatteras Island · NWS Newport/Morehead City NCNC-12 between the Basnight Bridge and Rodanthe remains closed.
Coastal Flood Warning · Hatteras Island · NWS Newport/Morehead City NC
Quoted from the NWS alerts above; road status changes fast, check the state DOT.
North Carolina
| Alert | Zones and counties | Until | NWS office |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coastal Flood Warning | Hatteras Island | Wed 8:00 PM EDT | Newport/Morehead City NC |
| Coastal Flood Warning | Ocracoke Island | Wed 8:00 PM EDT | Newport/Morehead City NC |
| Coastal Flood Advisory | Northern Outer Banks | Wed 8:00 PM EDT | Newport/Morehead City NC |
| Coastal Flood Advisory | Eastern Currituck; Virginia Beach | Thu 10:00 AM EDT | Wakefield VA |
| Coastal Flood Advisory | East Carteret | Tue 8:00 PM EDT | Newport/Morehead City NC |
| High Surf Advisory | Hatteras Island | Thu 8:00 PM EDT | Newport/Morehead City NC |
| High Surf Advisory | Northern Outer Banks | Thu 8:00 PM EDT | Newport/Morehead City NC |
| High Surf Advisory | Eastern Currituck; Virginia Beach | Thu 7:00 PM EDT | Wakefield VA |
| High Surf Advisory | Ocracoke Island | Wed 8:00 AM EDT | Newport/Morehead City NC |
| High Surf Advisory | East Carteret | Wed 8:00 AM EDT | Newport/Morehead City NC |
Maryland
| Alert | Zones and counties | Until | NWS office |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coastal Flood Watch | Inland Worcester | Wed 10:00 PM EDT | Wakefield VA |
| Coastal Flood Watch | Maryland Beaches; Accomack; Northampton | Wed 10:00 PM EDT | Wakefield VA |
| Coastal Flood Advisory | Inland Worcester | Thu 10:00 AM EDT | Wakefield VA |
| Coastal Flood Advisory | Maryland Beaches; Accomack; Northampton | Thu 10:00 AM EDT | Wakefield VA |
| High Surf Advisory | Maryland Beaches; Accomack; Northampton | Thu 7:00 AM EDT | Wakefield VA |
Virginia
| Alert | Zones and counties | Until | NWS office |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coastal Flood Watch | Surry; James City | Thu 1:00 AM EDT | Wakefield VA |
| Coastal Flood Advisory | Charles City; Surry; James City; Chesapeake; Newport News; Hampton/Poquoson; Isle of Wight; Suffolk; Norfolk; Portsmouth | Thu 1:00 PM EDT | Wakefield VA |
| Coastal Flood Advisory | Westmoreland; Northumberland; Lancaster; Middlesex; Mathews | Thu 3:00 PM EDT | Wakefield VA |
New Jersey
| Alert | Zones and counties | Until | NWS office |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coastal Flood Advisory | Ocean; Atlantic; Cape May; Atlantic Coastal Cape May; Coastal Atlantic; Coastal Ocean; Southeastern Burlington | Wed 10:00 PM EDT | Mount Holly NJ |
| Coastal Flood Advisory | Cumberland | Wed 10:00 PM EDT | Mount Holly NJ |
Delaware
| Alert | Zones and counties | Until | NWS office |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coastal Flood Advisory | Kent; Inland Sussex; Delaware Beaches | Wed 10:00 PM EDT | Mount Holly NJ |
| Coastal Flood Advisory | New Castle; Salem | Wed 10:00 PM EDT | Mount Holly NJ |
Track so far
NHC best track (ATCF), latest first. Times are Eastern.
| Time (ET) | Center | Wind | Pressure | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 2:00 PM ET | 36.3°N 69.4°W | 45 kt · 52 mph | 997 mb | extratropical low |
| Tue 8:00 AM ET | 35.6°N 70.2°W | 45 kt · 52 mph | 1000 mb | extratropical low |
| Tue 2:00 AM ET | 35.3°N 70.5°W | 45 kt · 52 mph | 1002 mb | extratropical low |
| Mon 8:00 PM ET | 35.3°N 70.9°W | 45 kt · 52 mph | 1002 mb | extratropical low |
| Mon 2:00 PM ET | 33.8°N 70.6°W | 45 kt · 52 mph | 1002 mb | extratropical low |
| Mon 8:00 AM ET | 32.9°N 70.8°W | 45 kt · 52 mph | 1007 mb | extratropical low |
| Mon 2:00 AM ET | 32.4°N 70.9°W | 45 kt · 52 mph | 1008 mb | extratropical low |
| Sun 8:00 PM ET | 31.8°N 71.0°W | 40 kt · 46 mph | 1010 mb | extratropical low |
Quick questions
What is Invest 93L?
An invest is, in the NHC's words, “A weather system for which a tropical cyclone forecast center (NHC, CPHC, or JTWC) is interested in collecting specialized data sets (e.g., microwave imagery) and/or running model guidance.” Invest 93L is invest number 93 in the Atlantic (the letter L marks the basin). The NHC adds: “The designation of a system as an invest does not correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone; operational products such as the Tropical Weather Outlook or the JTWC/TCFA should be consulted for this purpose.”
Will Invest 93L become Josephine?
The NHC gives it 40% odds in 48 hours and 40% in 7 days (medium) of becoming a subtropical or tropical cyclone. If it reaches tropical or subtropical storm strength (39 mph), it takes the next name on the 2026 Atlantic list: Josephine. Subtropical storms get names from the same list as tropical storms.
Where is Invest 93L now?
At Tue 2:00 PM ET the NHC best track put it near 36.3°N 69.4°W (about 340 mi (550 km) ESE of Ocean City, MD, our math), extratropical low, 45 kt (52 mph), 997 mb. The NHC outlook area on the map is where it could form.
Will Invest 93L cause coastal flooding even if it does not develop?
The NHC says: “Regardless of the status of the system, high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf are expected along portions of the U.S. East Coast during the next few days.” Right now the NWS has 2 coastal flood warnings, 3 coastal flood watches, 11 coastal flood advisories, 6 high surf advisories within 900 km of its center (NC, MD, VA, NJ, DE).
What is a subtropical storm?
The NHC glossary: a subtropical cyclone is “A non-frontal low-pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones.” A subtropical storm is “A subtropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 34 kt (39 mph or 63 km/hr) or more.”
When is the next update on Invest 93L?
The NHC issues its Tropical Weather Outlook every six hours (special outlooks when needed); this page checks it every 30 minutes.
Straight from the source
Outlook areas, odds, best track and alerts are NOAA's, unchanged. Distances, the “near” place and the alert cut are our math. An invest is not a forecast of landfall.