Invest 94ESouth of Southern Mexico · could become Vance
The National Hurricane Center gives Invest 94E a 90% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in 48 hours and 90% in 7 days. It would be named Vance.
Tap a colored area for the alert, its zones and when it ends.
Orange area: where the NHC says a cyclone could form (its Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook). White line and ×: the Invest 94E best track from the NHC's ATCF files, positions every 6 hours. Colored shapes: NWS coastal flood and high surf alerts within 900 km of its center (our cut). At Tue 2:00 PM ET the NHC best track put it near 9.8°N 96.2°W (about 540 mi (880 km) SSE of Acapulco, Mexico, our math), disturbance, 25 kt (29 mph), 1007 mb.
In the NHC’s words
From the Tropical Weather Outlook issued 1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 20 2026, quoted as issued.
South of Southern Mexico (EP94): A low-pressure system located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that are gradually becoming better organized, and a tropical depression is forecast to form within the next day or so. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph during the next few days, remaining well offshore of southern Mexico. For additional information, including Gale Warnings, see the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service.
Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Chances are the NHC's: low under 40%, medium 40–60%, high over 60%.
Track so far
NHC best track (ATCF), latest first. Times are Eastern.
| Time (ET) | Center | Wind | Pressure | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 2:00 PM ET | 9.8°N 96.2°W | 25 kt · 29 mph | 1007 mb | disturbance |
| Tue 8:00 AM ET | 10.0°N 95.6°W | 25 kt · 29 mph | 1007 mb | disturbance |
| Tue 2:00 AM ET | 10.0°N 94.8°W | 25 kt · 29 mph | 1007 mb | disturbance |
| Mon 8:00 PM ET | 10.3°N 94.0°W | 20 kt · 23 mph | 1009 mb | disturbance |
| Mon 2:00 PM ET | 10.6°N 93.0°W | 20 kt · 23 mph | 1009 mb | disturbance |
| Mon 8:00 AM ET | 10.7°N 92.1°W | 15 kt · 17 mph | 1011 mb | disturbance |
| Mon 2:00 AM ET | 10.7°N 91.2°W | 15 kt · 17 mph | 1011 mb | disturbance |
| Sun 8:00 PM ET | 10.7°N 90.3°W | 15 kt · 17 mph | 1011 mb | disturbance |
Quick questions
What is Invest 94E?
An invest is, in the NHC's words, “A weather system for which a tropical cyclone forecast center (NHC, CPHC, or JTWC) is interested in collecting specialized data sets (e.g., microwave imagery) and/or running model guidance.” Invest 94E is invest number 94 in the Eastern Pacific (the letter E marks the basin). The NHC adds: “The designation of a system as an invest does not correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone; operational products such as the Tropical Weather Outlook or the JTWC/TCFA should be consulted for this purpose.”
Will Invest 94E become Vance?
The NHC gives it 90% odds in 48 hours and 90% in 7 days (high) of becoming a tropical cyclone. If it reaches tropical or subtropical storm strength (39 mph), it takes the next name on the 2026 Eastern Pacific list: Vance. Subtropical storms get names from the same list as tropical storms.
Where is Invest 94E now?
At Tue 2:00 PM ET the NHC best track put it near 9.8°N 96.2°W (about 540 mi (880 km) SSE of Acapulco, Mexico, our math), disturbance, 25 kt (29 mph), 1007 mb. The NHC outlook area on the map is where it could form.
When is the next update on Invest 94E?
The NHC issues its Tropical Weather Outlook every six hours (special outlooks when needed); this page checks it every 30 minutes.
Straight from the source
Outlook areas, odds, best track and alerts are NOAA's, unchanged. Distances, the “near” place and the alert cut are our math. An invest is not a forecast of landfall.