Twenty-Two-E is getting stronger and could reach Category 3, about 115 mph, by Fri 6 PM. Right now: 35 mph, 515 mi (825 km) S of Acapulco, Mexico. No coastal watches or warnings. Closest pass to a city: Manzanillo, 259 mi (Mon 6 AM). Next NHC update: 3:00 PM CST.
Cone, track and warnings: NHC advisory 001. Models: ATCF run 2026102112 UTC.
Twenty-Two-E’s life so far, from its first fix to today.
It all began on October 18: a loose disturbance near 10.6°N 89.2°W. That was 3 days ago. It has never been stronger than it is right now. Since then its center has traveled about 678 miles (1,090 km).
At the latest advisory Twenty-Two-E is a tropical depression with 35 mph winds and a central pressure of 1005 mb, moving W at 7 mph (11 km/h).
The last point of the official forecast (Mon) shows a category 2 at 98 mph, about 259 miles from Manzanillo. Before that it should peak near 115 mph around Fri 6 PM. The closest it gets to any city we track is 259 miles from Manzanillo, around Mon 6 AM.
3 cities within 435 miles of Twenty-Two-E’s official track, with the time and strength of the closest pass. Our math, interpolated hourly from the NHC points.
The NHC’s own probabilities (advisory 1) that sustained winds reach each threshold within five days, for every place it lists. Start times in CST.
| Place | 39+ mph | 58+ mph | 74+ mph | Most likely start |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manzanillo | 15% | <3% | <1% | Sun 6 AM – Mon 6 AM |
| Lázaro Cárdenas | 10% | <3% | <1% | Sun 6 AM – Mon 6 AM |
| Zihuatanejo | 7% | <3% | <1% | Sun 6 AM – Mon 6 AM |
| Barra Navidad | 4% | <3% | <1% | Sun 6 AM – Mon 6 AM |
| Acapulco | 3% | <3% | <1% | Sun 6 AM – Mon 6 AM |
Official, word for word, from NHC advisory 001.
No coastal watches or warnings for Twenty-Two-E. The coastline can relax (for now).
What Twenty-Two-E does on land, according to the NHC. Key numbers highlighted.
Swells generated by Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Discussion and outlook from public advisory 001, quoted as issued.
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E was located near latitude 9.5 North, longitude 99.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general slow forward motion with a turn towards the northwest then north-northwest is expected the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid intensification is expected, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
Wind history from the NHC best track and the forecast ahead, on the Saffir-Simpson bands.
Its center was at 9.5N, 99.3W when the NHC issued advisory 001, which puts it 515 mi (825 km) S of Acapulco, Mexico. Winds: 35 mph.
It is moving W at 7 mph (11 km/h). The official NHC forecast ends Mon 6 AM about 259 miles from Manzanillo, as a category 2. The colored line on the map is that track; the white cone is the uncertainty around it.
Twenty-Two-E is currently a tropical depression with 35 mph winds. It would need another 39 mph to become a hurricane.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.
