LiveAdvisory 001500 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2026Atlantic

Subtropical Storm JosephineLive tracker

Still bulking up

Josephine is getting stronger and could reach Category 1, about 81 mph, by Fri 2 AM. Right now: 63 mph, 265 mi (425 km) S of Nantucket Massachusetts. No coastal watches or warnings. Closest pass to a city: Halifax, 245 mi (Fri 2 AM). Next NHC update: 11:00 PM AST.

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TDTS12345ForecastPastConeHU WarningHU WatchTS WarningTS Watch
The next five daysTop sustained wind (mph) at each official NHC forecast point · dashed lines = category thresholds
TS 39CAT 1 74CAT 2 9663NOW5 PM69THU2 AM75THU2 PM81PEAKFRI2 AM69FRI2 PM58SAT2 AM52SAT2 PM46SUN2 PM

Cone, track and warnings: NHC advisory 001. Models: ATCF run 2026102118 UTC.

The story of Josephine

Built from the NHC best track and the latest advisory.

The first NHC best-track fix on Josephine dates from October 18, when it was a extratropical low sitting near 31.0°N 71.4°W. Right now is its peak so far. Along the way its center has covered roughly 479 miles, or 770 km.

At the latest advisory Josephine is a tropical storm with 63 mph winds and a central pressure of 990 mb, moving N at 6 mph (10 km/h).

The last point of the official forecast (Sun) shows a post-tropical at 46 mph, about 736 miles from Ponta Delgada (Azores). Before that it should peak near 81 mph around Fri 2 AM. The closest it gets to any city we track is 245 miles from Halifax, around Fri 2 AM.

Closest approach

4 cities within 435 miles of Josephine’s official track, with the time and strength of the closest pass. Our math, interpolated hourly from the NHC points.

Halifax
245mi · 394 km
Fri 2 AMCategory 1
Outside cone
Boston
303mi · 487 km
Thu 2 PMCategory 1
Outside cone
New York
323mi · 519 km
Thu 2 AMTropical storm
Outside cone
Norfolk
376mi · 605 km
Wed 5 PMTropical storm
Outside cone

Wind odds by place

The NHC’s own probabilities (advisory 1) that sustained winds reach each threshold within five days, for every place it lists. Start times in AST.

Place39+ mph58+ mph74+ mphMost likely start
Sable Island92%36%6%Thu 2 PM – Fri 2 AM
Cape Race Nfld57%7%2%Fri 2 AM – Fri 2 PM
Ile St Pierre56%3%<1%Fri 2 AM – Fri 2 PM
Hibernia Oilfd28%3%<1%Fri 2 PM – Sat 2 PM
Nantucket Ma99%<3%<1%Wed 2 PM – Thu 2 AM
Hyannis Ma66%<3%<1%Wed 2 PM – Thu 2 AM
Montauk Point63%<3%<1%Wed 2 PM – Thu 2 AM
Eddy Point Ns59%<3%<1%Thu 2 PM – Fri 2 AM
Yarmouth Ns54%<3%<1%Thu 2 AM – Thu 2 PM
Providence Ri50%<3%<1%Wed 2 PM – Thu 2 AM
Sydney Ns48%<3%<1%Thu 2 PM – Fri 2 AM
Halifax Ns45%<3%<1%Thu 2 PM – Fri 2 AM
Burgeo Nfld32%<3%<1%Fri 2 AM – Fri 2 PM
Ptx Basques24%<3%<1%Fri 2 AM – Fri 2 PM
New London Ct16%<3%<1%Wed 2 PM – Thu 2 AM
St John Nb15%<3%<1%Thu 2 PM – Fri 2 AM
Eastport Me14%<3%<1%Thu 2 AM – Thu 2 PM
Nyc Jfk Airprt10%<3%<1%Wed 2 PM – Thu 2 AM
Boston Ma7%<3%<1%Wed 2 PM – Thu 2 AM
Islip Ny5%<3%<1%Wed 2 PM – Thu 2 AM
Cape Henlopen4%<3%<1%Wed 2 PM – Thu 2 AM
Ocean City Md4%<3%<1%Wed 2 PM – Thu 2 AM
Moncton Nb3%<3%<1%Thu 2 PM – Fri 2 AM
Bar Harbor Me3%<3%<1%Thu 2 AM – Thu 2 PM
Worcester Ma3%<3%<1%Wed 2 PM – Thu 2 AM
New Haven Ct3%<3%<1%Wed 2 PM – Thu 2 AM
Wallops Cda3%<3%<1%Wed 2 PM – Thu 2 AM

Watches & warnings

Official, word for word, from NHC advisory 001.

No coastal watches or warnings for Josephine. The coastline can relax (for now).

Hazards

Rain, wind, surge and surf, straight from the advisory, with the numbers that matter highlighted.

Wind

Gale-force winds are possible in gusts along portions of the northeastern United States coast through Thursday. See products issued by your local National Weather Service office for more details.

COASTAL FLOODING: Minor to locally moderate coastal flooding is ongoing along portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast and will continue through the rest of the week around times of high tide. Please refer to products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office for more information.

Surf

Large swells generated by Josephine are affecting much of the eastern seaboard of the United States and portions of Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: NHC graphic

In the NHC’s words

Discussion and outlook from public advisory 001, quoted as issued.

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Josephine was located near latitude 37.4 North, longitude 69.5 West. Josephine is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). The storm should turn northeastward by tomorrow with a large increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, Josephine should move away from the United States and remain south of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected, though Josephine is anticipated to remain a subtropical storm through early Thursday. Further strengthening is likely by late Thursday as Josephine becomes a post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).

Intensity

Wind history from the NHC best track and the forecast ahead, on the Saffir-Simpson bands.

U.S. alerts nearby

Active flood, wind and tropical alerts from the National Weather Service in states near the track (NC, VA, NY, MA, ME). Not all of them are Josephine’s fault.

VA · 13 active alerts: Coastal Flood Advisory, Coastal Flood Warning, Coastal Flood Watch, High Surf Advisory
  • Coastal Flood Advisory — Charles; King George · until 2026-10-22 16:00
  • High Surf Advisory — Maryland Beaches; Accomack; Northampton · until 2026-10-22 07:00
  • Coastal Flood Warning — Virginia Beach · until 2026-10-22 09:00
  • Coastal Flood Warning — Westmoreland; Northumberland · until 2026-10-22 14:00
  • High Surf Advisory — Virginia Beach · until 2026-10-22 19:00
  • Coastal Flood Advisory — Maryland Beaches; Accomack; Northampton · until 2026-10-22 20:00
  • Coastal Flood Advisory — New Kent; Gloucester; Eastern King William; Eastern King and Queen; York · until 2026-10-23 20:00
  • Coastal Flood Advisory — Charles City; Surry; James City; Chesapeake; Newport News; Hampton/Poquoson; Isle of Wight; Suffolk; Norfolk; Portsmouth · until 2026-10-23 20:00
  • Coastal Flood Advisory — Richmond; Lancaster; Middlesex; Mathews; Western Essex; Eastern Essex · until 2026-10-23 20:00
  • Coastal Flood Watch — Maryland Beaches; Accomack; Northampton · until 2026-10-21 22:00
  • Coastal Flood Watch — Eastern Currituck; Virginia Beach · until 2026-10-21 22:00
  • Coastal Flood Watch — Newport News; Isle of Wight · until 2026-10-22 01:00
  • Coastal Flood Watch — Surry; James City · until 2026-10-22 01:00
NC · 9 active alerts: Coastal Flood Advisory, Coastal Flood Warning, Coastal Flood Watch, High Surf Advisory
  • Coastal Flood Advisory — Ocracoke Island · until 2026-10-22 08:00
  • High Surf Advisory — Hatteras Island · until 2026-10-22 20:00
  • Coastal Flood Warning — Hatteras Island · until 2026-10-22 20:00
  • Coastal Flood Advisory — Northern Outer Banks · until 2026-10-22 20:00
  • High Surf Advisory — Northern Outer Banks · until 2026-10-22 20:00
  • Coastal Flood Advisory — Eastern Currituck · until 2026-10-22 09:00
  • High Surf Advisory — Eastern Currituck · until 2026-10-22 19:00
  • Coastal Flood Advisory — Inland New Hanover · until 2026-10-21 21:00
  • Coastal Flood Watch — Eastern Currituck; Virginia Beach · until 2026-10-21 22:00
NY · 2 active alerts: Coastal Flood Advisory
  • Coastal Flood Advisory — Southern Nassau · until 2026-10-21 19:00
  • Coastal Flood Advisory — Southwest Suffolk · until 2026-10-21 21:00

Quick questions

Where is Subtropical Storm Josephine now?

265 mi (425 km) S of Nantucket Massachusetts, at 37.4N, 69.5W, according to the 500 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2026 advisory. Top winds are 63 mph.

Where is Josephine going?

It is moving N at 6 mph (10 km/h). The official NHC forecast ends Sun 2 PM about 736 miles from Ponta Delgada (Azores), as a post-tropical. The colored line on the map is that track; the white cone is the uncertainty around it.

What category is Josephine?

Josephine is currently a tropical storm with 63 mph winds. It would need another 11 mph to become a hurricane.

When is the next Josephine update?

Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

Straight from the source

NHC public advisory NHC graphics NHC forecast discussion National Weather Service