Right now there is no tornado warning in effect anywhere in the U.S. But Tornado Watch 688 covers 4 counties in Arizona until 6:00 PM MST. In the last 24 hours the NWS issued 8 tornado warnings in Arizona, near Flagstaff, Cottonwood and Grand Canyon Village. The Storm Prediction Center gives a 5% tornado chance today in parts of Arizona; 2% reaches California and Utah.
Red shapes are the warning polygons drawn by each NWS office; hatched areas are the counties in a tornado watch; dashed outlines are warnings from the last 24 hours that already ended. Arrows show where the storm was heading when the warning was issued. The colored background is the Storm Prediction Center outlook you pick above. Our map, their alerts.
In effect now, by state and county
Watches first, then warnings, most serious on top. Times are local, as each NWS office writes them.
Tornado Watch 688
Until Wed 6:00 PM MST
Issued Wed 10:10 AM MST · NWS Flagstaff AZ, Las Vegas NV
ArizonaCoconino, Navajo, Yavapai, Mohave
2 or more tornadoes50%
1 or more strong tornadoes (EF2-EF5)20%
10 or more severe hail events60%
Hail of 2 inches or more60%
10 or more severe wind events40%
Gusts of 65 knots (75 mph) or more20%
Watch probabilities from the Storm Prediction Center (WWP, Wed 1:00 PM ET).
SPC · primary threats
A few tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across northern and central Arizona this afternoon. Strong vertical shear will support supercells thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards, including 2"+ diameter hail and tornadoes. The threat for severe weather will persist throughout the afternoon and into the evening.
Every tornado warning, when it was issued, where the storm was and how it ended.
Arizona 8 tornado warnings
5:19 AMWed · MST
Coconino Radar Indicated
At 519 AM MST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Garland Prairie, or 18 miles west of Flagstaff, moving northeast at 40 mph.
Locations impacted: Fort Valley, Parks, Bellemont, Garland Prairie, Government Prairie, Maine, Camp Navajo, Whitehorse Lake, Scholz Lake, Wing Mountain
Expired 5:45 AM MSTNWS Flagstaff AZHail 1.00 in
5:22 AMWed · MST
Coconino; Yavapai Radar Indicated
At 522 AM MST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Perkinsville, or 18 miles northwest of Cottonwood, moving northeast at 40 mph.
Locations impacted: Perkinsville, J.D. Dam Lake
Canceled 5:31 AM MSTNWS Flagstaff AZHail 1.00 in
5:41 AMWed · MST
Coconino Radar Indicated
At 541 AM MST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Bellemont, or 11 miles northwest of Flagstaff, moving northeast at 35 mph.
Locations impacted: Fort Valley, Bellemont, Government Prairie, Inner Basin, Arizona Snowbowl, Saddle Mountain, Humphreys Peak, Agassiz Peak, Kachina Peaks Wilderness, Lava River Cave
Canceled 5:59 AM MSTNWS Flagstaff AZHail 1.00 in
7:49 AMWed · MST
Yavapai Radar Indicated
At 749 AM MST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Prescott Valley, moving northeast at 40 mph.
Locations impacted: Prescott Valley, Prescott, Chino Valley, Dewey-Humboldt, Downtown Prescott, Oak Knoll Village, Whipple, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Prescott Regional Airport, Prescott Rodeo Grounds
Canceled 8:01 AM MSTNWS Flagstaff AZHail 1.00 in
8:18 AMWed · MST
Yavapai Radar Indicated
At 818 AM MST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Jerome, or 8 miles west of Cottonwood, moving north at 45 mph.
Locations impacted: Clarkdale, Jerome, Jerome State Historic Park, Sycamore Canyon Wilderness, Parsons Spring, Sycamore Canyon, Woodchute Mountain
Canceled 8:32 AM MSTNWS Flagstaff AZHail 1.00 in
9:09 AMWed · MST
Coconino Radar Indicated
At 909 AM MST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 5 miles northwest of Forest Highlands, or 9 miles southwest of Flagstaff, moving north at 45 mph.
Locations impacted: East Flagstaff, Downtown Flagstaff, Fort Valley, Forest Highlands, Bellemont, Camp Navajo, Northern Arizona University, Sunnyside, Railroad Springs, Cheshire
Canceled 9:34 AM MSTNWS Flagstaff AZHail 1.00 in
9:22 AMWed · MST
Coconino Radar Indicated
At 922 AM MST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Downtown Flagstaff, or over Flagstaff, moving north at 45 mph.
Locations impacted: East Flagstaff, Doney Park, Timberline, Downtown Flagstaff, Fort Valley, Fernwood, Pioneer Valley, Wupatki Trails, Pine Mountain Estates, Sunset Crater Volcano National Monument
Expired 9:45 AM MSTNWS Flagstaff AZHail 1.00 in
11:32 AMWed · MST
Coconino Radar Indicated
At 1132 AM MST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 6 miles west of Valle, or 30 miles south of Grand Canyon Village, moving northeast at 45 mph.
Locations impacted: Valle, Valle Airport, Red Butte Mountain
Canceled 11:44 AM MSTNWS Flagstaff AZHail 1.00 in
The sentence in each card is the warning's own (“At … was located …”), quoted as the NWS wrote it. “Radar indicated” means rotation seen on radar; “observed” means a tornado was seen or confirmed.
Is my city in it?
Cities inside a warning, a watch, a recent warning or the SPC tornado area.
City
Now
Warnings in 24 h
Tornado % today
Tomorrow
Day 1 risk
Flagstaff, AZ
Tornado watch
2 · 9:09 AM MST, 9:22 AM MST
5%
2%
Enhanced
Prescott, AZ
Tornado watch
1 · 7:49 AM MST
5%
2%
Enhanced
Prescott Valley, AZ
Tornado watch
1 · 7:49 AM MST
5%
2%
Enhanced
Sedona, AZ
Tornado watch
—
5%
2%
Enhanced
Cottonwood, AZ
Tornado watch
—
5%
2%
Enhanced
Winslow, AZ
Tornado watch
—
5%
2%
Slight
Show Low, AZ
Tornado watch
—
2%
5%
Slight
Kingman, AZ
Tornado watch
—
2%
—
Slight
Payson, AZ
Nothing
—
5%
2%
Enhanced
Los Angeles, CA
Nothing
—
2%
2%
Marginal
Phoenix, AZ
Nothing
—
2%
2%
Slight
Mesa, AZ
Nothing
—
2%
2%
Slight
Long Beach, CA
Nothing
—
2%
2%
Marginal
Anaheim, CA
Nothing
—
2%
2%
Marginal
Our own check: is the city point inside a warning or watch polygon, or inside an SPC outlook area? Tornado % = SPC probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Times are local.
Storm Prediction Center outlook, next 3 days
Where severe storms and tornadoes are possible before any watch is issued.
Day 1 · Wed Oct 21Enhanced risk5% tornadoAZ, CA, UT, NV, NM
There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of central Arizona.
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected today and tonight across parts of Arizona and vicinity. Isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado may also occur along the central/southern California Coast.
Southwest Resulting increase in low-level shear will support an increased tornado potential.
Coastal Central/Southern California Even so, given modestly enhanced flow and low-level shear, an isolated risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado may exist as this convection moves onshore.
Southwest This potential will be maximized from northwest into central AZ this afternoon and early evening, but low-probability tornado potential will extend to the southern AZ/NM border.
Day 2 · Thu Oct 22Slight risk5% tornadoAZ, NM, UT, CA
There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms portions of Southeast Arizona.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Southwest and Four Corners area on Thursday, with the greatest risk across parts of Arizona. All severe hazards will be possible.
Southwest into parts of the Great Basin The potential for a tornado will increase within southern Utah into Arizona where surface flow will be more backed greater destabilization is more probable.
Coastal Southern California Given the ambient vorticity with the upper-low and local terrain effects, a brief tornado is possible with the strongest storms along with isolated wind damage potential.
Southwest into parts of the Great Basin Large hail (perhaps to around 2 inches) and a couple of tornadoes will be the main concern.
Day 3 · Fri Oct 23Marginal risk5% any severeNM, TX
There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms portions of central into southern New Mexico.
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central into southern New Mexico on Friday.
SPC · issued Wed 3:24 AM ET · Squitieri · full outlook
Headlines, summaries and tornado sentences are the Storm Prediction Center's own words. The states listed are our reading of the SPC areas. An SPC tornado probability is the chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a point; the SPC itself notes these numbers “seem so low” because tornadoes are rare at any one place. SPC FAQ
What local NWS offices are saying
NWS Flagstaff AZArea forecast discussion · Wed 2:21 PM ET
The primary concerns are flooding and flash flooding, severe thunderstorms, and even a few tornadoes.
A concerning situation will evolve across Arizona over the next two days, with threats of flooding/flash flooding, severe thunderstorms, and tornadoes.
Stronger supercell storms will be capable of large 2+ inch hail, damaging wind gusts, and even a few tornadoes.
NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard CAArea forecast discussion · Wed 1:23 PM ET
Forecast soundings are showing CAPE values upwards of 2000j/kg in the Los Angeles area and a favorable sounding for some weak rotation so there remains at least a 5% chance of a weak tornado.
The convective nature of this system driven by the instability created by the cold core of the upper low as well as the warm SSTs will bring a slim ~5% chc of a waterspout moving ashore as a tornado tonight into Thursday morning.
Any thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing gusty/erratic winds, locally rough seas and even waterspouts.
NWS Phoenix AZArea forecast discussion · Wed 1:58 PM ET
Moderate to heavy rainfall activity leading to areas of flash flooding as well as isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms leading to damaging wind gusts, large hail, and even a few isolated tornadoes are all possible.
As a result, damaging wind gusts in excess of 60-70 mph, large hail in excess of 1-2" in diameter and even an isolated tornado or two will be threats with any given severe thunderstorm.
NWS Las Vegas NVArea forecast discussion · Wed 2:05 PM ET
Tornado Watch and Flash Flood Watch in effect for Mohave County, AZ today.
Damaging winds, large hail, isolated tornadoes, and heavy rain are all threats.
Effective bulk shear of 45-60 kt and increasing instability will be more than sufficient for discrete cells and supercell development later this afternoon capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and even isolated tornadoes.
NWS Salt Lake City UTArea forecast discussion · Wed 2:29 PM ET
There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms capable of producing strong winds and hail across southern Utah Wednesday afternoon and evening, and a 2% chance of a tornado.
Sentences that mention tornadoes, waterspouts or funnel clouds in the latest discussion of each office with tornado alerts or with cities inside the SPC tornado area, quoted as written.
Tornado reports
Preliminary tornado reports to the SPC: 0 on Oct 21 (since 12 UTC) and 0 on Oct 20. Today so far it also lists 4 large hail and 2 damaging wind reports.
A warning is not a tornado: most tornado warnings are issued for rotation seen on radar. Reports are preliminary; the NWS confirms tornadoes and rates them (EF scale) with damage surveys, days later. SPC storm reports
What to do in a tornado warning
The National Weather Service's own advice.
At Your House
If you are in a tornado warning, go to your basement, safe room, or an interior room away from windows. Don't forget pets if time allows.
At Your Workplace or School
Follow your tornado drill and proceed to your tornado shelter location quickly and calmly. Stay away from windows and do not go to large open rooms such as cafeterias, gymnasiums, or auditoriums.
Outside
Seek shelter inside a sturdy building immediately if a tornado is approaching. Sheds and storage facilities are not safe. Neither is a mobile home or tent. If you have time, get to a safe building.
In a vehicle
Being in a vehicle during a tornado is not safe. The best course of action is to drive to the closest shelter. If you are unable to make it to a safe shelter, either get down in your car and cover your head, or abandon your car and seek shelter in a low lying area such as a ditch or ravine.
Stay Weather-Ready
Continue to listen to local news or a NOAA Weather Radio to stay updated about tornado watches and warnings.
Tornadoes are possible in and near the watch area. Review and discuss your emergency plans, take inventory of your supplies and check your safe room. Be ready to act quickly if a warning is issued or you suspect a tornado is approaching.
A tornado has been sighted or indicated by weather radar. There is imminent danger to life and property. Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows.
A tornado emergency is the National Weather Service’s highest alert level. It is issued when a violent tornado has touched down in the watch area. There is a severe threat to human life and property, with catastrophic damage confirmed.
Two more labels you may see: a tornado warning with the “considerable” damage threat tag (often called a PDS warning) and a severe thunderstorm warning tagged “tornado possible”. Watches come from the Storm Prediction Center and cover large areas; warnings come from your local NWS office and cover a few miles around a storm. Definitions quoted from NWS · Understand Tornado Alerts · SPC FAQ.
Quick questions
Are there tornado warnings right now?
No. As of Oct 21, 3:07 PM ET there was no tornado warning in effect anywhere in the U.S. There was 1 tornado watch. This page also checks the NWS again in your browser every 2 minutes.
Is there a tornado watch in Arizona?
Yes. Tornado Watch 688 covers Coconino, Navajo, Yavapai and Mohave until Wed 6:00 PM MST. The SPC puts the chance of 2 or more tornadoes in the watch at 50%. A watch means conditions are favorable: be ready to act if a warning is issued.
Was there a tornado warning in Flagstaff today?
Yes. In the last 24 hours NWS Flagstaff AZ issued 2 tornado warnings whose area included Flagstaff, at 9:09 AM MST and 9:22 AM MST. None of them is in effect now.
Was there a tornado warning in Prescott today?
Yes. In the last 24 hours NWS Flagstaff AZ issued 1 tornado warning whose area included Prescott, at 7:49 AM MST. None of them is in effect now.
Could there be a tornado in Los Angeles today?
It is possible but unlikely: the Storm Prediction Center gives Los Angeles a 2% chance of a tornado within 25 miles today. The local NWS office writes: “Forecast soundings are showing CAPE values upwards of 2000j/kg in the Los Angeles area and a favorable sounding for some weak rotation so there remains at least a 5% chance of a weak tornado.” If a warning is issued it will appear on this map and on phones in the area.
What is the difference between a tornado watch and a tornado warning?
A tornado watch (Storm Prediction Center) means tornadoes are possible in and near the watch area: be prepared. A tornado warning (your local NWS office) means a tornado has been sighted or indicated by weather radar: take action now.
What is a tornado emergency?
The National Weather Service's highest alert level, issued when a violent tornado has touched down and catastrophic damage is confirmed. In the NWS data it is a tornado warning with the “catastrophic” damage threat tag.
Where does this data come from?
Warnings and watches from the National Weather Service API (api.weather.gov), each with its polygon or the official outline of its counties; outlooks, watch texts and storm reports from the Storm Prediction Center. We never change an alert; we draw it and add the time in local time.