Vance is getting stronger and could reach Category 3, about 121 mph, by Sat 12 AM. Right now: 40 mph, 520 mi (835 km) S of Acapulco, Mexico. No coastal watches or warnings. Closest pass to a city: Manzanillo, 232 mi (Mon 12 PM). Next NHC update: 9:00 PM CST.
Cone, track and warnings: NHC advisory 002. Models: ATCF run 2026102118 UTC.
Vance’s life so far, from its first fix to today.
It all began on October 18: a loose disturbance near 10.6°N 89.2°W. That was 3 days ago. Right now is its peak so far. Along the way its center has covered roughly 719 miles, or 1,157 km.
Today Vance blows at 40 mph (tropical storm), its pressure sits at 1003 mb and it is heading W at 7 mph (11 km/h). Tropical-storm-force winds reach up to 70 miles from the center.
By Mon, the end of the official forecast, the NHC expects a category 2 with 98 mph winds, about 232 miles from Manzanillo. Before that it should peak near 121 mph around Sat 12 AM. The closest it gets to any city we track is 232 miles from Manzanillo, around Mon 12 PM.
3 cities within 435 miles of Vance’s official track, with the time and strength of the closest pass. Our math, interpolated hourly from the NHC points.
The NHC’s own probabilities (advisory 2) that sustained winds reach each threshold within five days, for every place it lists. Start times in CST.
| Place | 39+ mph | 58+ mph | 74+ mph | Most likely start |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manzanillo | 19% | 3% | 1% | Sun 12 PM – Mon 12 PM |
| Lázaro Cárdenas | 13% | <3% | <1% | Sun 12 PM – Mon 12 PM |
| Zihuatanejo | 8% | <3% | <1% | Sun 12 PM – Mon 12 PM |
| Barra Navidad | 6% | <3% | <1% | Sun 12 PM – Mon 12 PM |
| Islas Marías | 3% | <3% | <1% | Sun 12 PM – Mon 12 PM |
| Acapulco | 3% | <3% | <1% | Sun 12 PM – Mon 12 PM |
Official, word for word, from NHC advisory 002.
No coastal watches or warnings for Vance. The coastline can relax (for now).
Rain, wind, surge and surf, straight from the advisory, with the numbers that matter highlighted.
Swells generated by Vance are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Discussion and outlook from public advisory 002, quoted as issued.
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vance was located near latitude 9.4 North, longitude 99.8 West. Vance is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion with a turn toward the northwest then north-northwest is expected over the next few days, with a slight decrease in forward speed.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid intensification is expected, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
Wind history from the NHC best track and the forecast ahead, on the Saffir-Simpson bands.
At the latest advisory (300 PM CST Wed Oct 21 2026), the center of Vance was near 9.4N, 99.8W, about 520 mi (835 km) S of Acapulco, Mexico, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h).
It is moving W at 7 mph (11 km/h). The official NHC forecast ends Mon 12 PM about 232 miles from Manzanillo, as a category 2. The colored line on the map is that track; the white cone is the uncertainty around it.
Vance is currently a tropical storm with 40 mph winds. It would need another 34 mph to become a hurricane.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.
